2011

arc of the Fire. Power street or popular unrest in Arab countries bezneftyanyh

Kalashnikov: Dugan Ognyan. Home - O Egypt and Tunisia ...

Tunis. Desert

Egipto. Piramidos

What will follow the "revolutions" in the Arab "countries-without-oil"? Islamic Balkans? The new global struggle?

Today reports about popular unrest in Egypt evokes grassroots rebellions in Iran 1978-1979 period. Old government in Tunisia and Egypt fall. At risk - the regimes in Jordan, Yemen, Syria, Algeria. Flashes a huge arc of tension, which stretches across North Africa and pierce in the Middle East.

What will this lead?

no buildup to a global war?

Superkirgiziya

presented his findings at the outset.

political upheavals "street power" and even mass popular action to demand the change of power (using Internet technology) occur in poorer Arab countries, deprived of big oil. (Egypt produces oil - 45 million tons a year - but almost all of it himself, and consumes, and exports of gas from it in the best case not to exceed 8 billion cubic meters per year).

Everywhere sat regimes "Putin's type" (privatized state that serves as a feeding trough for clan-hegemony, underdevelopment). Everywhere disaffected youth who sees a rich world of the Internet and TV needs jobs, higher earnings and life prospects. All this is painfully reminiscent of the "color revolutions" in Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine. It just so happened that the wreckage of the Soviet Union fell into the category of third golozadyh world. Well, the future of "nonviolent revolutions" will be like post-Soviet options.

first triumphant mass sweep the old, moss-covered establishment, ruling for decades. Well, like the regime of Hosni Mubarak, who was sitting at the head of Egypt's Anwar Sadat's assassination in 1981. But then it turns out that the new democracy does not can give people jobs, sharply increase the GDP. And why? Notwithstanding that all countries have the periphery of the capitalist system. Their economy - is a tourist service, something which raw materials and low-tech, low value added. Everything is based on cheap labor (poverty of the people). No industries with high added value, with a knowledge-intensive.

most advanced country of all covered riots - Egypt. With paltry three thousand dollars of GDP per capita per year, with 65 million population and revenues without a shower in the 1.7 million new Egyptians every year. In this case, Egypt is 97% - the desert, he provided food for only 40% (the rest - Imports), a heavy external debt sucks almost all export earnings. Vaunted tourism provides only 6-7 billion dollars a year. Here - the realm of poverty.

But this is Egypt. And if you take Yemen there at all - the gloom. No lumen in the economy, the population rapidly breeds, fresh water is already sorely lacking.

most developed countries from now the troubled - Egypt. But she is so poor that the average consumer basket of Egyptians to 70% of spending on food. Rising prices for food (and it is in today's world is inevitable) will cause food riots in this country. Not to mention the other "arabistanah.

After the victorious revolutions in these Arab countries the population will quickly discover that living as the poor and hungry as ever. That work as not, or not. Power from the hands old clans passed into the hands of new groups, but hell no sweeter than radish. Something new rulers, too, do not forget yourself. So, again - very soon! - Vyzreyut conditions for the next "revolution" with the same results. Well, as in Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine. Democracy in the Arab world, he has never happened, so - "demreformy" turn into this mess, uncontrollable, and corruption. Bloom extremist movements and fighting factions. Instability and theft rampant radical elements lead to a drop in tourism revenues. Economy prosyadet - against the backdrop of worsening global crisis.

What's next? This whole series of "color Revolutions in the North African-Middle Eastern arc (sometimes coinciding with the route of Rommel's Army movement) will end in these countries, the establishment of stringent dictatorial regimes. Maybe the military-secular, but can - and Islamic. For Egypt has a great chance to become a second Iran. It - the cradle of modern the radical Muslim movement. Democracy will not be here. But the Islamic regimes will not solve the problems of poverty and unemployment.

Yoradania

Yemen

loss in the cradle

current popular unrest in Arab bezneftyanyh countries are doomed to an ignominious finale literally from the cradle. Their members will remain with nothing anyway.

order to get jobs, earnings and life chances, they must, in fact, unite in a kind of Soviet Union (though the name of the Caliphate), and to industrialize. Merge in one country, the laborers of Tunisia and Egypt, Syria and Jordan - with the hydrocarbon riches of Algeria, Libya, Iraq, the Arabian Peninsula. Introduce socialism, severely limit the consumption of riding - and oil money to build modern industry, to teach youth science and technology, colleges open today and schools, technical schools and vocational schools, to deliver to him the best experts and technology from the West. It needs to abandon the most retrograde of the Islamic religion. At the same time must be put desalination plants to extract underground water - and to irrigate land for farming. Given that the soil in North Africa, the former is so abundant and fertile in the Roman Empire, now eroded and exhausted.

Alone, none of these countries with the task will not cope. Yes, even in 1960, Egypt tried to build an industrial socialism, betting on Arab nationalism and Islam, rejecting the retrograde. Even then Egyptian "Lenin" - Nasser - planned to establish in the country and aircraft and missile industry. But failed. Navel undone already in 1970.

Today there is no force able to unite several Arab countries in North Africa. Already in 1960 collapsed plans to create the United Arab Republic of Egypt and Syria. Sheiks Gulf unwilling to share their petrodollars. Is unlikely to share them, and Libya. Arabs for many centuries, can not unite. None among them his Hitler which could be a few years a series of "Blitzkrieg" to create a single state at least in the Maghreb. And certainly not be able to avoid the onset of the "new barbarism in the Muslim version. This means that the cycle of poverty and hopelessness of the Arabs did not escape. Despite all the "color revolutions" and free (at first) elections.

In the case of a string of "color revolutions" in the Arab world, the era of violence and conflict will come here will inevitably and irreversibly. And all of this coincides with an acute crisis of the EU project. With the possible collapse - because of the debt crisis - the current united Europe.

Covering Europe from the south, there will be an Islamic arc of fire and instability. On the one hand, from the victorious revolution will increase the flow of migrants into the arms of crisis in Europe - Because there is still life richer. And the resulting arc begins as it is pushed to the south of the European Union, setting in motion a scenario of "senile evrofashizma. While working on the countries of the former fascist zone: Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece. Increase pressure on Germany, which already is heating up anti-Islamic, anti-immigrant passion.

Yemen

Porridge from terror, war, drugs ...

On the other hand, a series of "color revolutions" and their effects superimposed on the chaos and conflict that followed the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. In its territory zabushuet civil war, where take the external part Turks, Saudis, Iranians. In the battle take the Kurds who want to chop off his territory from Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria - for Kurdistan. Kurds start an armed struggle for oil Oilfield in the north of the former Iraq, beating them by Iraqi Arabs.

Add to this a possible bloody chaos in Afghanistan-Pakistan. Threat of disintegration of Pakistan. The prospect of the spread of chaos and war with Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan ("bomb" the Ferghana Valley). The prospect of nuclear weapons from Iran - with the subsequent purchase of nuclear warheads, Saudi Arabia). Some experts fear that the work on its bomb could begin, and Egypt, if you turn into a radical Islamic state. Throw in the crisis of Israel, and - strengthening the forces of political Islam in Turkey. If more Americans and will be removed from Afghanistan, it will begin such that the entire southern Eurasia flared up in bloody conflicts. Weakening, tormented by their U.S. crisis even pi want can not prevent all of this. Yes, they do not want to.

Yemen becomes another base of piracy. Yemen Pozar oil of Saudi Arabia. He will try to take advantage of the fact that America is no longer able to serve the same security guarantees Sauditskogo kingdom, as in the 1980-2000's. And that Yemen would like to have your oil: it is something it lacks. Iran, under cover (if Saudis do not have time to acquire the Bomb) may try to chop off the Eastern Province of Arabia: The focus of its oil wealth. To avoid this scenario, the U.S. will have to give up everything - and attack Iran, occupying its main oil producing province - Khuzestan. Perhaps together with the Saudis.

I'm afraid that in such a "happy life" piracy will appear on the south (Arabic), the Mediterranean Sea. Moreover, closely related with the illegal transfer of immigrants in the south of Europe.

In short, you get a nightmarish mess of a Eurasian war, decay, massacres and drug trafficking ...

Fire inevitably spill over in Russia, where the proportion of Muslims is growing and where the life-prospects - not really ...

win in this situation, try, without any doubt, the United States.

Yordania Woman-jijab

new world war

Americans, whose country also got into a severe systemic crisis advantageous arson Eurasia. Because then you can say: "Yes, we have a problem, but on the background of the creator in Eurasia, the United States - real haven. Wear their money to us! »

Soon it may be the only way for the U.S.. Because the alternative - the only domestic crisis, a dangerous collapse of America. S it is very important to export the crisis to the outside world.

If in Eurasia that formed somewhere between Superbalkanami Megakirgiziey and if the continent will be covered hotbeds of war and conflict, but Europe will suffer distress, there may be "anti-crisis Recuttings" world. And the main perekroyschikami-peredelschikami made by the U.S. and China. May be followed by a new pact on the division of spheres of influence. It can be assumed that the Americans put forward a plan section of the Russian Federation among themselves, China, Japan and Europe. They will try to tear yourself the best part of Eastern Siberia and the Russian Arctic (a kind of new Alaska). Perhaps China will offer our Far East, part of Kazakhstan, Africa.

struggle is likely to unfold for the Persian Gulf oil. There may a clash between U.S. and China (to be may be) of the Iran-India block. The Chinese will have to take on part of Pakistan with access to the sea (in the case of dissolution of the aforesaid countries). The old Western Europe, throwing away the poor and debt-burdened "new Europe", will join close to civilization and the Americans. U.S. will have to fight at sea (using the superiority of in the Navy over China), defending the Persian Gulf. Here's the possible operation to capture the "oil of the heart" of Iran - Khuzestan. If we succeed, then we obtain for all of this put together a unit of the US-Western Europeans, Saudis, the Gulf monarchies. "

In turn, Iran tried to detonate inside Saudi kingdom, and quickly hit the capture "oil heartland of Arabia.

Turkey will fight savagely with the Kurds, the separatists to conduct operations in the north Former Iraq, locked in a number of cases of Iran and to try to capture the Northern Black Sea coast with oil deposits off the coast of Crimea. Hi "independent Ukraine! The fighting in the Crimea are expected to be especially brutal. Turks is to support the growth of his new empire Need hydrocarbons, of which they are denied. Perhaps Турция в тех же целях попытается взять под крыло Азербайджан, вторгнувшись для этого в Закавказье.

Какие бои и конфликты ожидают обломки РФ – даже думать scary. The strongest fragment it will be oil-bearing, relatively well-preserved modern industry (and fertility) of Tatarstan. What will happen if he becomes an ally of the Turks?

detached from the whole North Caucasus will be an analog of Afghanistan, spreading around the violence and blood. He will remain one way - to capture the southern Russian Cossack lands, plunder and slaughter of Slavs. And, perhaps, to supply fighters for the mercenaries of many wars blazing in Eurasia. Etnokriminalnye Caucasian gang rush to take control over the remnants of the Russian Federation - over Muscovy's for sure. Here we see, and mercenaries from Afghanistan who are accustomed only to fight - since 1979 they have experience goes.

Chopped Arab world will triple the intensity of terror in the West and will continue to demographic expansion into Europe.

U.S. can survive if installed a totalitarian regime of new industrialization, managing to rally Canada, England, West Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Being able to add on to his eastern Siberia. If you can ...

picture becomes even worse, since the U.S. will not cope with the crisis and fall apart. China can not quickly fill the power vacuum. But bringing order to require him extreme cruelty and the seizure of vast lands.

Comes what MK warned in his book "Global smutokrizis. What never ceases to speak Andrei Ilyich Fursov. Economic crisis, who joined in the acute phase in 2008, relentlessly and inexorably transformed into social and political crisis. What's happening in the Arab world - is only the beginning of the planetary nightmare. His trigger.

In these circumstances, Russian can save only a miracle ... In the form of national social revolution, the new industrialization and the creation of union for the sake of common development, common market and defense. Russian Union of at least the Russian Federation, Belarus and Ukraine ... the USSR-2 ...